Rouge News

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

32.74%chance

191203

OptionVotes

YES

1007

915

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.21%chance

19885

OptionVotes

YES

1030

949

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

1147

957

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Apr 18, 12:18 AMJul 7, 4:00 PM

276339225

Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?

Feb 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.46%chance

384403

OptionVotes

YES

1030

952

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.98%chance

281096

OptionVotes

YES

1009

988

A Chinese AI org will release something roughly as good as the original ChatGPT before 2025

Mar 23, 3:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.36%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

1038

975

Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher, lower, or roughly the same at the end of 2024, compared to the end of 2023?

Feb 2, 5:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

130

Roughly what % of workers will use VR headsets on a weekly basis in Jan 2029?

Feb 29, 4:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71017

As a rough guess what % of images that we see in a day will be AI in Jan 2029?

Feb 29, 3:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.08%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

184

176

Will AGI figure out a quantilizer of which people roughly continued most to its global computation?

Mar 27, 10:42 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

29.63%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will convex.dev still be around in roughly its current form in 5yr?

Sep 29, 11:08 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

23.04%chance

768

OptionVotes

YES

223

143

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Rouge News

Prediction markets for Rouge

Prediction markets for Rouge

Prediction markets for Rouge

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

A Chinese AI org will release something roughly as good as the original ChatGPT before 2025

Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher, lower, or roughly the same at the end of 2024, compared to the end of 2023?

Roughly what % of workers will use VR headsets on a weekly basis in Jan 2029?

As a rough guess what % of images that we see in a day will be AI in Jan 2029?

Will AGI figure out a quantilizer of which people roughly continued most to its global computation?

Will convex.dev still be around in roughly its current form in 5yr?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Rouge

Prediction markets for Rouge

Prediction markets for Rouge

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

A Chinese AI org will release something roughly as good as the original ChatGPT before 2025