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Prediction markets for OK
Prediction markets for OK
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
Jun 11, 5:12 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving?
Apr 1, 11:01 AM
66
0
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
199
80893
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:01 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
513
325877
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
290708
What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES]
Jun 4, 8:27 AM
Jul 4, 9:59 PM
53
5147
What will be the next 'classic' episodes on the 80,000 Hours podcast?
May 1, 8:15 PM
Mar 1, 11:59 PM
2
360
💿Who will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 26, 4:46 AM
May 1, 3:59 AM
7
655
Star Wars: The Acolyte [Mega Market]
Mar 24, 2:18 AM
Jul 17, 6:59 AM
22
1878
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025? (no audio requirement, slide show okay)
May 13, 9:09 AM
Jan 1, 2:59 PM
64.3%
chance
22
430
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1027
931
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win an NBA Championship in the next 5 years?
Jan 18, 5:04 PM
Jan 18, 11:59 PM
35.9%
chance
31
649
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1036
917
Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Mar 28, 5:21 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
29.28%
chance
15
553
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1100
935
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