OC News

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Nov 29, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

4278

OptionVotes

YES

280

Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy]

Apr 17, 2:17 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

96.86%chance

22991315

OptionVotes

YES

48592

7944

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.13%chance

12915652

OptionVotes

YES

6813

5036

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

21400

The first human brain upload able to remember a password will occur by ... ?

Nov 5, 11:49 PMNov 23, 10:59 PM

231799

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.13%chance

14945012

OptionVotes

YES

7301

2303

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Jun 25, 3:43 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

50.92%chance

222307

OptionVotes

YES

1019

982

Will Biden physically fall down in public on camera again between October 8, 2023 and November 6, 2024?

Oct 8, 1:05 PMNov 6, 1:56 PM

47.55%chance

23118078

OptionVotes

YES

1622

1331

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

Dec 10, 12:03 PMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

14.05%chance

4918602

OptionVotes

YES

973

965

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6619

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]

Nov 29, 11:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.97%chance

232414

OptionVotes

YES

1585

880

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

416608

OptionVotes

YES

2334

1620

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Prediction markets for OC

Prediction markets for OC

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In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy]

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

The first human brain upload able to remember a password will occur by ... ?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Will Biden physically fall down in public on camera again between October 8, 2023 and November 6, 2024?

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for OC

Prediction markets for OC

Prediction markets for OC

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy]

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

The first human brain upload able to remember a password will occur by ... ?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)