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Prediction markets for OC
Prediction markets for OC
In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]
Nov 29, 11:43 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
10%
chance
4
278
Option
Votes
YES
NO
280
62
Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?
Mar 31, 9:14 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
27.44%
chance
130
16415
Option
Votes
NO
YES
6681
5369
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy]
Apr 17, 2:17 PM
Sep 30, 10:59 PM
98.58%
chance
242
137503
Option
Votes
NO
YES
95244
6953
If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?
Jul 3, 1:56 AM
Jan 22, 4:59 AM
6
1585
The first human brain upload able to remember a password will occur by ... ?
Nov 5, 11:49 PM
Nov 23, 10:59 PM
23
1799
SOTA on a SWE-bench [Unassisted] in October 2024
Oct 11, 12:30 PM
Oct 11, 9:59 PM
15
15822
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
Sep 20, 1:30 AM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
10.13%
chance
149
45012
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7301
2303
Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)
Jun 25, 3:43 AM
Sep 30, 9:59 PM
48.52%
chance
23
2357
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1030
971
If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?
Dec 10, 12:03 PM
Feb 1, 10:59 PM
15%
chance
50
20032
Option
Votes
NO
YES
984
903
Will Biden physically fall down in public on camera again between October 8, 2023 and November 6, 2024?
Oct 8, 1:05 PM
Nov 6, 1:56 PM
47.55%
chance
231
18078
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1622
1331
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
Mar 6, 11:24 PM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
6
619
In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]
Nov 29, 11:42 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8.97%
chance
23
2414
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1585
880
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