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Prediction markets for Monte Carlo
Prediction markets for Monte Carlo
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
6
1661
Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?
Dec 23, 9:10 PM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
83.36%
chance
21
941
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1135
944
What will be true of the Manifold UK General Election Projection?
May 25, 9:38 PM
Jul 4, 10:59 PM
9
1664
Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
Oct 24, 2:30 PM
Dec 31, 2:59 PM
60.72%
chance
6
220
Option
Votes
YES
NO
161
103
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