IS News

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.23%chance

260535883

OptionVotes

YES

3242

1546

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

14834509

OptionVotes

YES

1035

995

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.91%chance

8311985

OptionVotes

YES

1962

467

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

50.94%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

10097

9905

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

196083

OptionVotes

YES

12421

7908

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.98%chance

3814288

OptionVotes

YES

14526

7010

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

6723283

OptionVotes

YES

25539

3382

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 11, 6:59 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

65%chance

481947

OptionVotes

YES

7961

5891

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.47%chance

46787942

OptionVotes

YES

7165

5009

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.17%chance

26067806

OptionVotes

YES

2990

1675

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

9814530

OptionVotes

YES

8717

4034

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

60%chance

18121792

OptionVotes

YES

2412

1287

Latest stories

8-9 Dead as ISKP Attacks Foreign Tourists and Afghan Companions in Bamiyan
Authors
6
1 month
Middle East
World
IS-K Resurgence Poses Global Threat, Coalition Resolve Weakens
Authors
5
3 months
Israel
World
Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) Clarified Amid Media Confusion in Afghanistan and Pakistan's Wilayat Khurasan
Authors
4
3 months
Israel
World
Islamic State Drops 55:37-Minute ISKP Propaganda Video, First Since 2019, Boosting Azaim's Status
Authors
9
4 months
China
Middle East
World

IS News

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

Prediction markets for IS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Latest stories