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Top stories

Amazon Hits $2 Trillion Market Cap for First Time on Intraday Basis, Stock Rises 3.2% to $192.23
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Boeing to Resume Widebody Jet Deliveries to China After Regulatory Review
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Prediction markets for China

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

May 9, 3:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.85%chance

214143572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110296

50681

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.53%chance

606251347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15598

12821

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.88%chance

22664074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2244

1469

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.65%chance

36377312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3491

2011

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.31%chance

649406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

949

Will China real GDP growth rate reach 5% in 2024?

Dec 25, 5:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60%chance

312042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1342

626

Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)

Mar 6, 9:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17313898

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Oct 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

52.15%chance

323105369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

972

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

39.61%chance

455062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

938

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

6414206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

798

China housing/real estate crisis by Sep 2024? (1000M subsidy)

Sep 27, 7:58 AMSep 27, 8:59 PM

62.58%chance

7313065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1946

1923

Will the US & China agree in 2024 to keep a human in the loop for decisions to use nuclear weapons?

Dec 2, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.25%chance

513853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

1361

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