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Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal have lowered the probability of a recession in the next year, marking the first time the probability has fallen below 50% since last year. The average probability now stands at 48%, down from 54% in July. This shift in sentiment comes as leading economic indicators strongly point to a recession, but economists are turning more optimistic on the U.S. economy. They believe the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and that inflation will continue to ease.
JUST IN: Interest rate futures now showing rate cuts beginning in July 2024 after retail sales data. Furthermore, additional rate HIKE odds are nearing 50% and being pushed well into 2024. There is even a very small (0.3%) chance of up to 3 more rate hikes. As time goes on,… https://t.co/nwyIEPmxW8 https://t.co/Kcm2jz6a7z
🚨NEW VIDEO🚨 Recession In 2024? Most Likely. - Is 2024 going to bring a recession along with it? - Economic data on the consumer, housing, business sentiment, and manufacturing - Massive inflow into cash instruments indicating investor fear - Other signs of recession https://t.co/Y3ufRJ0xPw
In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates https://t.co/0HJOqPC2Se https://t.co/5Vqe1Hlijm
Recession is no longer the baseline: For 1st time in year and a half, economists surveyed by WSJ put the probability of recession at less than 50% (48%, to be precise; that's the average. The median is 50%). For more, read @HarrietTorry and @anthonydb https://t.co/8OvYfs5C2x https://t.co/bcZpmFl2Os
“In the latest quarterly survey by @WSJ, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48% — first time that probability below 50% since middle of last year.” https://t.co/6q4hSYfJza https://t.co/TOKu7ByQNB
Business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%--the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year https://t.co/gSVp9BkEZ2 https://t.co/3kgZABfZfE
Most economists surveyed by the WSJ think the Fed has made its last rate hike and will have lowered rates by next June. The probability of a recession in the U.S. has dipped below 50% for the first time in a year, according to the survey https://t.co/hWHZS29zg5 https://t.co/IxFxqk1iHV
🔸A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street… https://t.co/X7sKJNDeEx
"In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the… https://t.co/d41Npa2aH3 https://t.co/znuqyhONkR
Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 is now over 60% This level has been seen only 2 times since 1960 Both times, it ended in severe economic downturns While the Fed still believes in a “Soft Landing” Leading economic indicators strongly point to a recession This… https://t.co/UVr0NvmWoP https://t.co/ABymovcIIJ
"My guess is we will have a recession. I don't know whether it will be fairly mild or fairly serious, but it will probably go deep into next year," per Jeremy Grantham.
A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared https://t.co/53R1bsABpP