Business and academic economists have lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, signaling a more optimistic economic outlook. According to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, the average probability dropped from 54% in July to 48%, the first time it has fallen below 50% since last year. This shift suggests that economists are increasingly confident in the strength of the economy. The survey results align with recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, such as Richmond Fed President Barkin, who stated that the Fed has time to assess data before making any rate move decisions. These developments indicate a positive trend in the economic landscape and could have implications for monetary policy decisions in the future.
Are we in a recession?
Fed's Barkin: can't rely on tightening from long-term rates https://t.co/tESvMJQt12 https://t.co/2GBLBSwvg7
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: I BELIEVE WE HAVE A RESTRICTIVE POLICY STANCE.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: I DON'T KNOW WHERE RATES WILL BE IN THREE WEEKS FROM NOW, GIVEN WHAT'S HAPPENING GLOBALLY.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: THE CHALLENGE WITH DEPENDING ON RATES IS THEY CAN MOVE.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: LONGER-TERM RATES HAVE MOVED UP, WHICH HAS TIGHTENED CONDITIONS.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: RATE MOVES WORK THROUGH FINANCIAL CONDITIONS.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: CHANGING THE INFLATION GOAL NOW WOULD LOWER FED CREDIBILITY.
Richmond Fed's Barkin: the Fed has 'time to see' if further rate hikes needed https://t.co/2aEgJQUbi4 by @Jenniferisms
FED'S BARKIN: FED HAS TIME TO SEE DATA BEFORE MAKING NEXT RATE MOVE CALL BARKIN: ANECDOTAL INFO POINTS TO MORE SLOWING THAN CURRENT DATA SHOWS BARKIN: PATH FOR INFLATION IS NOT YET CLEAR, BUT SEES CLEAR PROGRESS
🇺🇸 Fed's Barkin: Fed has time to see data before making next rate move call - Reuters Full Story → https://t.co/6gMnbwf7pn https://t.co/jEyYspF3OJ
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: WAGE PRESSURES REMAIN, BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE MODERATED.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: THE ECONOMY IS MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON LOWERING INFLATION.
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: I AM STILL SEEKING CONFIRMATION THAT THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING.
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: THE PATH FOR INFLATION IS NOT YET CLEAR, BUT SEES CLEAR PROGRESS.
🔸BARKIN: IF RECESSION ARRIVES, POSSIBLE IT COULD BE MILDER THAN OTHER RECENT DOWNTURNS
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: IF RECESSION ARRIVES, IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE MILDER THAN OTHER RECENT DOWNTURNS.
🔴 FED'S BARKIN: THE FED HAS TIME TO SEE DATA BEFORE MAKING THE NEXT RATE MOVE CALL.
🔸BARKIN: FED HAS TIME TO SEE DATA BEFORE MAKING NEXT RATE MOVE CALL 🔸BARKIN: ANECDOTAL INFO POINTS TO MORE SLOWING THAN CURRENT DATA SHOWS 🔸BARKIN: PATH FOR INFLATION IS NOT YET CLEAR, BUT SEES CLEAR PROGRESS
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: BUSINESSES SEE LESS PRICING POWER BUT STILL WILLING TO PROBE ON PRICE INCREASES.
🇺🇸 Fed's Barkin: Fed has time to see data before making next rate move call - Reuters https://t.co/cY74BlwtqJ
🔴 FED’S BARKIN: ANECDOTAL INFO POINTS TO MORE SLOWING THAN THE CURRENT DATA SHOWS.
“In the latest quarterly survey by @WSJ, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48% — first time that probability below 50% since middle of last year.” https://t.co/6q4hSYfJza https://t.co/TOKu7ByQNB