Tropical Depression Sean is forecasted to become a remnant low later today, while a new tropical system, Invest 90E, is likely to form into a tropical cyclone in the coming week. The intensity of Invest 94L, located in the central tropical Atlantic, may be capped due to struggling convection and dry air. Despite some models suggesting it will pull together as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, others keep it as a wave for days. The late-season East Pacific continues to produce active systems, with Invest 90E potentially turning back northeast towards Mexico. The absence of active tropical cyclones in both the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basins provides a brief respite in overall tropical cyclone activity.
Here's the latest on the tropics. INVEST 94-L with an 80% chance of development. Next named storm is Tammy. https://t.co/Z8GTj1hbRx
Today is the first day since August 11th that we have not had an active TC in either the EPAC or NATL basin. That will likely change soon with #94L & #90E among other features looming, but it’s nice to have a brief (however small) respite in overall TC activity. #tropics https://t.co/8pNFhpyqYw
This 9-day loop of Total Precipitable Water imagery covering the Western Pacific Ocean tracks the moisture in Typhoon #Bolaven from the ITCZ northward until it is sheared apart and heads eastward. Where's it going? Toward the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the North America continent! https://t.co/ocOeT5PXNe
#94L continues to look rather elongated and sloppy - doesn't really look like convection is concentrating at all. Some models still seem to insist it'll pull together as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, but others (like deterministic Euro) just keep it as a wave for days. https://t.co/ne6HyudOQF
TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure (Invest 94L) located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower activity. Although the environment may not support much development during the next couple of days, conditions are expected to become more conducive… https://t.co/AF2KizYr9P https://t.co/B5SWJjleye
While #94L sputters along in the MDR, the late-season East Pacific will continue to produce. New invest #90E appears likely to form into a TC in the coming week, and has a chance to be another system that turns back NE towards Mexico. Worth keeping an eye on this one there. https://t.co/yPsseVke0L
Tropical Depression #Sean Advisory 20: Sean Forecast to Become a Remnant Low Tonight. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Tropical Depression #Sean Advisory 19: Sean Forecast to Become a Remnant Low Later Today. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Comparing current satellite with 24-h forecasts from yesterday, #94L is less convectively active than models were indicating, which is likely part of the reason for models downtrending. Still something that needs to be watched, but the dry air may be winning the battle for now. https://t.co/QN6vjm7Bec
#94L still struggling to maintain convection at the moment. Between this and the forecast trend towards more SW shear east of the islands, I think the intensity of this may be capped. Surprised at the overall lack of organized convection right now - might be dry air getting in. https://t.co/qd8r2AXsoB