Several experts and analysts have expressed skepticism about the possibility of a meaningful decoupling of global trade from China. They argue that China's trade surplus with the rest of the world, including countries like Mexico and Vietnam, remains at record highs. The imposition of higher tariffs and restructuring of global trade patterns are seen as leading to increased frictional costs to the West, rather than a reduction in China's manufacturing output or exports.
In my perspective, "decoupling" doesn't imply that China will cease exporting goods or reduce its manufacturing output. Instead, it refers to the restructuring of global trade patterns, the imposition of higher tariffs, and the rise in frictional costs to the West - all of which… https://t.co/GVPq0DptjO
The fact that there's any kind of narrative on how global trade is decoupling from China is pretty baffling. After all, China's trade surplus with the rest of the world is at record highs (black) and not even its bilateral surplus with the US (blue) is down in any meaningful way. https://t.co/j0XAO2sKHv
There is NO meaningful decoupling of global trade from China. China's trade surplus with countries like Mexico (black) and Vietnam (blue) is up massively. Those goods don't stay in Mexico or Vietnam. They're trans-shipped to the rest of the world. No decoupling, only rejiggering. https://t.co/2u0N4pFxtf
No. WAY: "‘Derisking’ China-Reliant Supply Chains Is Creating New Risks" https://t.co/rElOI03nqA "the balance of evidence so far suggests the downsides of complexity are outweighing some of the benefits." https://t.co/ZlTxIMK8xL
This is a double edged sword. It makes imports / inputs more expensive. China is extremely reliant on imports for energy, natural resources and food. https://t.co/Mt30XIS5tO