Economic analysts are expressing concerns about the potential for a recession in 2024, citing the current yield curve inversion as a historical predictor of economic downturns. Bob Murphy, an economist, predicts that the Federal Reserve's tightening will end the unsustainable boom, leading to a crash in 2024. He believes the yield curve will un-invert as the Fed lowers rates, seeing the downturn coming, and will once again be vindicated as a good predictor. Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle has noted that the soft landing is largely here but is still monitoring key risks for 2024. The yield curve inversion, which has reached levels seen before the Great Depression, has an impressive track record of anticipating recessions, with the probability of a recession in 2024 now crossing 60%, a level only seen three times since 1960, all of which were followed by recessions. Amid heightened stock market volatility, investors are convinced in a 'Soft landing.' Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is rethinking its strategy on emerging markets after learning two main lessons from a bad bet on China's post-pandemic reopening boom in 2023.
Goldman’s Painful 2023 Lesson on China Forces Rethink of Emerging Markets - BBG https://t.co/dqzeI2Sxc1
Goldman’s Painful 2023 Lesson on China Forces Rethink of Emerging Markets / in this case, GS did exactly what the government wanted it to do but then…. https://t.co/sVVsRAUUqw
Goldman's head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main lessons from one of the biggest bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom https://t.co/0DxIEzb6NQ
Goldman's head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main lessons from one of the biggest bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom. https://t.co/J3foIrtv7k
Goldman’s Painful 2023 Lesson on China Forces Rethink of Emerging Markets https://t.co/7U0ubGa82i
WARNING: The probability of a recession in 2024 has now crossed 60% This level has only been seen 3 times since 1960 All 3 instances ended recessions With heightened stock market volatility Today, investors are convinced in a “Soft landing” Yet the yield curve inversion… https://t.co/Kkf6uD4uIE
BEWARE: Yield curve inversions have an incredible track record of anticipating recessions The current inversion has hit levels reminiscent of 1928 This was the year right before the Great Depression Keep in mind, there's typically a time lag between inversions and recessions… https://t.co/QTPQnxGJc7
"The soft landing has gone from on-track to largely here," says Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle. He shares the key risks he's still watching for 2024: https://t.co/jXdIo8ZpEn
My interpretation of our current economic situation is that Fed tightening will end the unsustainable boom and a crash will begin in 2024. The yield curve will un-invert as the Fed lowers rates, seeing the downturn coming. Yield curve will once again be vindicated as a good…