Recent polling data from various sources indicate significant shifts in voter intentions ahead of the upcoming UK general election. A YouGov poll shows Labour leading with 37%, followed by the Conservatives at 20%, Reform UK at 17%, and the Liberal Democrats at 13%. Another poll by Savanta reveals Labour's vote share has dropped to its lowest since January 2022, now at 38%, with the Conservatives at 21% and Reform UK at 14%. The Telegraph reports Labour's support has fallen by 4% following a debate between Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak. Despite these fluctuations, Labour remains on course for a historic majority, with projections from JL Partners and other models suggesting Labour could secure between 434 and 450 seats, while the Conservatives might win around 100 to 106 seats. Reform UK is also gaining traction, now polling at 16-17% in several surveys. An Opinium poll shows Labour at 40%, Conservatives at 20%, and Reform UK at 17%. A Deltapoll survey places Labour at 42% and Conservatives at 21%.
UK (GB), JL Partners poll: SRP seat projection LAB-S&D: 450 (+248) CON~ECR: 105 (-260) LDEM-RE: 55 (+44) SNP-G/EFA: 15 (-33) PC-G/EFA: 3 (-1) REFORM~NI: 2 (+2) GREENS-G/EFA: 1 +/- vs. 2019 election Fieldwork: 7-25 June 2024 Sample size: 13,584 ➤ https://t.co/Oc1WEqP3kq https://t.co/WAVygZAxZL
Heading into election week, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20%. LAB: 40.3% (+7.4) CON: 20.3% (-24.4) RFM: 16.2% (+14.1) LDM: 11.5% (-0.3) GRN: 6.0% (+3.3) SNP: 3.0% (-1.0) Changes w/ GE2019. https://t.co/kz25YAE6Wc https://t.co/bv0l2ZejR7
🚨 @JLPartnersPolls Scottish VI 🔴Labour 35% (+16) 🟡Scottish National Party 30% (-15) 🔵Conservatives 12% (-13) 🟠Liberal Democrats 10% (NC) 🟣 Reform UK 9% (+9) 🟢Green Party 3% (+2) Dates: 7th - 25th June https://t.co/jIKeVQ2XZs
🆕 Our final @Moreincommon_ Scottish voting intention of the election finds Labour lead the SNP by 5. 🔴LAB 35% (+16) 🟡SNP 30% (-15) 🔵CON 16% (-9) 🟠LIB DEM 9% (-1) 🟣REF UK 7% (NEW) 🟢GRN 2% (+1) Changes with 2019, N=1008, 24-28/6 Tables: https://t.co/SqvkEwkRT5 https://t.co/AsBUEQ3voi
MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today? LAB: 436 MPs (+236) CON: 96 (-282) LDEM: 68 (+60) SNP: 23 (-25) REF: 7 (+7) GRN: 4 (+3) PC: 3 (+1) via Britain Predicts, 29 Jun https://t.co/RTQh3sU2dY https://t.co/695AND8mX6
🚨 || General Election Nowcast (30/06): LAB: 453 (+253) - 40.9% CON: 81 (-291) - 21.0% LDM: 69 (+61) - 11.5% SNP: 17 (-31) - 2.9% GRN: 4 (+3) - 6.1% PLC: 4 (+2) - 0.6% RFM: 3 (+3) - 15.9% Others: 0 (=) - 1.1% + NI (18) & Speaker (1). LAB Maj of 256. https://t.co/Y304WEsKwv https://t.co/vuhDc7D6VJ
🚨Our NEW Stacked Regression Model has a Labour Majority of 250🚨 🔵The Tories are projected to win just over 100 seats 🟠LDs return to seat numbers they last had under Blair/Brown 🟣Reform UK are set to pick up just 2 seats https://t.co/rnBiva3iBY
NEW: JLP SRP model projection in The Sunday Times 🔴 LABOUR: 450 seats 🔵 CONSERVATIVE: 105 seats 🟠 LIB DEM: 55 seats 🟡 SNP: 15 seats 🟤 PLAID CYMRU: 3 seats 🟣 REFORM UK: 2 seats 🟢 GREEN: 1 seat 🟥 LABOUR majority of 250 Details: https://t.co/7ktoyivH7P https://t.co/waTSp3stb1
Labour falls to lowest vote share in more than two years, Telegraph poll reveals - but still on course for historic majority https://t.co/SQ53F2NXD1
📈📉The latest @SkyNews poll tracker puts Labour on a 20-point lead over the Conservatives. Lab 40.3 (37-43) Con 20.2 (15-25) Reform 16.3 (13-21) Lib Dems 11.4 (9-13) Green 6.1 (4-9) SNP 2.9 (2-5) Follow the tracker here: https://t.co/0qx5Ohk7Rc https://t.co/35cGPfPTda
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 21 points in our latest poll for The Mail on Sunday. Con 21% (+1) Lab 42% (-) Lib Dem 11% (-) Reform 16% (-1) SNP 3% (-) Green 4% (-) Other 3%(+1) Fieldwork: 27th to 29th June 2024 Sample: 1,645 GB adults (Change from 24th - 26th June 2024) https://t.co/R0O4tyy1lx
🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK Labour continue to lead by 20 · Labour 40% (n/c) · Conservatives 20% (n/c) · Reform 17% (+1) · Lib Dems 13% (n/c) · Greens 6% (-3) · SNP 3% (n/c) Fieldwork: 26 - 28 June. Changes from 19 - 21 June. https://t.co/s3ozTKQDEj
Labour falls to lowest vote share in more than two years, Telegraph poll reveals Support for the party dropped by 4 % in the space of a week following Sir Keir Starmer’s final head-to-head debate with Rishi Sunak and increased scrutiny of his policies. https://t.co/EpL759w6Rl
📉 Labour’s vote share has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years ahead of the general election, new polling for The Telegraph shows. Read the full story here 👇 https://t.co/lXugPj0gDP https://t.co/XByaSAfayb
New @OpiniumResearch Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%. https://t.co/2geAbNyNMf
Norstat Scotland poll Con 13(-1) Reform 8 (+1) LD 8 (+1) SNP 31 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) Greens 3 (-1) Alba 1 https://t.co/i1tFcvtSSX
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph 📈Lowest Labour vote share since January 2022 🌹Lab 38 (-4) 🌳Con 21 (=) ➡️Reform 14 (=) 🔶LD 11 (+1) 🌍Green 6 (+1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 7 (+1) 2,092 UK adults 26-28 June (chg from 21-24 June) https://t.co/cdyp3lJygQ
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (25-27 June 2024) Con: 20% (+2 from 24-25 June) Lab: 37% (+1) Reform UK: 17% (=) Lib Dem: 13% (-2) Green: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) https://t.co/Bnx3VR8Mgw https://t.co/hVzwzy5qWi
Central estimates of our prediction model, updated with the Electoral Calculus MRP and latest polls: Lab 434 (+5 vs 26th June) Con 106 (-11) LDem 48 (+6) SNP 23 (=) Plaid 3 (=) Ref 2 (=) Grn 1 (=) https://t.co/KImgS16ibT https://t.co/ovex0TkkdJ
🗳️ Chingford and Woodford Green MRP projection: 🔵 CON 43% (-5) 🔴 LAB 26% (-19) ⚪️ IND 18% (+18) <-- @FaizaShaheen 🟣 REF 6% (+6) 🟢 GRN 4% (+3) 🟠 LD 3% (-2) Via @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 14-25 June https://t.co/9VcXawm6LX
New YouGov Westminster voting intention (Scotland)* Lab: 35% SNP: 29% Con: 11% Lib Dem: 11% Reform UK: 8% Green: 5% *now using our new MRP methodology, so not comparable to previous results. Fieldwork 20-25 June https://t.co/ndiZCdnLT3 https://t.co/OVqoZoSGJB
Latest opinion poll from @WStoneInsight puts @reformparty_uk 3 points ahead of the Conservatives. Let's hope #ActorGate does not affect the numbers. Labour 38% (-1) Reform 21% (+1) Conservatives 18% (-1) Lib Dems 11% (-1) Greens: 7% (+1) Other: 5% (+1) Taken on 26-27 June https://t.co/wCbeCnSmgc
UK (GB), YouGov poll: Ethnic minority voting intention LAB-S&D: 53% CON~ECR: 14% GREENS-G/EFA: 14% REFORM~NI: 7% LDEM-RE: 6% SNP-G/EFA: 0% Fieldwork: 11-20 June 2024 Sample size: 1,001 ➤ https://t.co/Q9KUgKY6yS https://t.co/T9wF61MFOo