Viktor Orbán’s Hungary Planned 2022 Annexation of Ukraine’s Ethnic Hungarian Transcarpathia Region, Ukrainian Intelligence Says

Intelligence and analysis from various sources indicate that Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, planned to annex the Transcarpathia (Zakarpattia) region of Ukraine, which has a significant ethnic Hungarian population. This plan reportedly dates back to 2022 and was allegedly coordinated with Russia, with the expectation that Kyiv would fall quickly due to the Russian invasion. Ukrainian security services (SBU) have claimed to have captured two Hungarian citizens working for Hungarian intelligence, supporting suspicions of Hungary's intentions. Observers suggest that Orbán's government may have an informal agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, wherein Hungary would receive Transcarpathia as part of a broader strategy linked to Russia's war aims in Ukraine. This alliance between Putin and Orbán is seen as a sub-issue within the larger Ukraine conflict. Despite public displays of military strength, the Hungarian army is considered weak and unprepared, relying instead on the anticipated collapse of Ukraine to achieve territorial gains. There are also concerns that Hungary's ambitions could affect neighboring countries such as Serbia and Romania. Additionally, speculation exists that Hungary might act opportunistically if Russia expands its military actions to the Baltics and Poland in 2026 following upcoming Russian exercises in Belarus.