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Polymarket Odds Surge Above 70% for U.S. and Israeli Military Action Against Iran Before July Amid Trump Evacuation Call

36 posts • GPT (4.1 mini)

Updated Jul 2, 2025, 10:05 PM

Polymarket's betting market has shown a rapid and volatile increase in the odds of military action involving the United States, Israel, and Iran before July 2025. Initially, the probability of Israeli military strikes against Iran surged to over 40%, rising further to 54% and then 57% amid reports of heightened alerts at Israeli bases and evacuation of non-essential personnel. Concurrently, the odds of U.S. military intervention against Iran escalated sharply from 4% in early June to peaks above 80%, influenced by aggressive rhetoric from U.S.

President Donald Trump, including calls for the evacuation of Tehran. By mid-June, the probability of U.S. military action was estimated between 65% and 78%, with a brief decline to 38% before rebounding to around 70% by late June. Polymarket also indicated a 97% chance of an Iranian counterstrike against Israel within the month and a 21% chance of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons in 2025. Additionally, there is a 26% to 30% probability of U.S. military action directly supporting Israel, with the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran ending before July at approximately 72%. The betting data reflects heightened geopolitical tensions, including resumed Israeli strikes in Tehran's District 18 and ongoing deliberations by President Trump and his National Security Council. The market activity underscores public speculation about imminent conflict escalation in the Middle East involving these key actors.

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