The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial primaries are shaping up with clear frontrunners in both the Democratic and Republican parties. On the Democratic side, Mikie Sherrill has emerged as the leading candidate, consistently holding a substantial lead in recent polls. According to a Siena Research/AARP poll conducted from April 28 to May 1, Sherrill garnered 25% of likely Democratic voters, with Ras Baraka and Josh Gottheimer trailing at 11% and 9%, respectively. An Emerson poll from May 11-13 showed Sherrill at 28%, maintaining her position as the favorite. Fundraising efforts reflect this momentum, with Sherrill raising $3.8 million since April 25, the highest among Democratic candidates. Other Democratic contenders include Steve Fulop, Ras Baraka, Josh Gottheimer, Sean Spiller, and Steve Sweeney, all polling between 5% and 13%. The Democratic primary remains competitive, but many view Sherrill as the candidate to beat.
On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli leads decisively, bolstered by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who praised Ciattarelli's commitment to the "Make America Great Again" agenda. Recent polls, including an Emerson poll from May 11-13, show Ciattarelli with 44% support, significantly ahead of his closest rival, Bill Spadea, who holds 18%. Other Republican candidates include Bramnick and Barbera, polling lower. Ciattarelli has actively highlighted Trump's endorsement in his campaign messaging.
Early voting is underway for the special election in Brooklyn's 22nd Senate District, with over 1,500 early voting check-ins recorded as of May 16. Additionally, the South Brooklyn District 47 race is heating up ahead of the June 24 primary, featuring two Democrats and two Republicans competing to replace Council Member Justin Brannan.
Overall, the New Jersey gubernatorial primaries are intensifying with Sherrill and Ciattarelli as the leading contenders for their respective parties, supported by strong polling numbers, fundraising, and high-profile endorsements.
Sherrill ads have significantly picked up
She had the highest % of the spending cap available and One Giant Leap, an independent group has also started running ads on her behalf for a 1-2 punch
pro-Fulop/Gottheimer ads dominated the airwaves in March
Where is the Democratic vote in the NJ primary clustered?
mostly white/asian college-educated areas which punch way above their population %
These 5 cities only combine for 5% of total vote!
🔵Newark 1.7%
🔵Paterson 1.3%
🔵Elizabeth 0.8%
🔵Trenton 0.6%
🔵Camden 0.6%
