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WFC Analysis

Published 10 hours ago

All 22 largest US banks pass Fed stress test; Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs lead dividend hikes.

Commentary

Major U.S. banks cleared the Fed’s 2025 stress test, confirming strong capital positions even under severe recession scenarios. This has triggered a wave of dividend increases and buyback announcements across the sector, supporting recent gains in bank shares. However, management commentary remains cautious: Wells Fargo flagged a sharp 25% drop in Q2 investment banking fees and noted weaker consumer risk appetite, while JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned that credit risk could rise if unemployment ticks higher. Regulatory changes to leverage ratios (SLR) are also on the horizon.

Tech and AI stocks continue to attract bullish analyst attention. Wells Fargo and Roth Capital raised price targets for Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, citing improved fundamentals and AI-driven revenue growth. Microsoft saw its target lifted to as high as $600 on expectations for a $100B AI business, while upgrades for Datadog and Zscaler highlight ongoing strength in cloud and cybersecurity spending.

Tesla remains volatile: shares surged on the robotaxi pilot in Austin, but Wells Fargo reiterated a bearish view, projecting a 21% decline in deliveries and a $1.9B free cash flow deficit for 2025. The bank’s $120 price target implies significant downside risk. Option markets are showing increased demand for downside protection in Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta.

Elsewhere, Intel’s $840M Mobileye share sale and Mobileye’s $100M buyback reflect both Intel’s need for liquidity and confidence in Mobileye’s prospects, with Wells Fargo raising its target to $24. Uber’s record high and target boost underscore continued momentum in ride-hailing and delivery.

Traders should monitor upcoming bank earnings for further credit quality signals, regulatory updates, and any shifts in consumer or loan growth data. Tech and AI remain key drivers, but volatility in high-profile names like Tesla and ongoing macro uncertainty warrant a disciplined approach.

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