Lilly’s pipeline momentum continues, with the FDA approving a safer Kisunla dosing schedule, likely improving adoption among Alzheimer’s patients despite ongoing UK reimbursement challenges. The company’s willingness to appeal the NICE ruling signals ongoing commitment to its neurology franchise, but near-term UK revenue impact is likely limited.

Obesity remains the key battleground. Mounjaro’s rapid uptake in India and direct competition from Wegovy highlight the importance of emerging markets, where pricing and supply strategies are critical as local generics loom. Citi’s reiterated $1,190 price target and focus on orforglipron’s 2026 launch underscore investor optimism around Lilly’s obesity pipeline, with upcoming trial readouts and Q2 earnings as near-term catalysts.

Lilly is also expanding its metabolic and cardiovascular reach. The $1.3B Verve Therapeutics acquisition gives it a foothold in gene-editing for cholesterol reduction, while recent clinical data on bimagrumab plus Wegovy supports differentiation in preserving muscle during weight loss. Direct-to-consumer moves, like selling high-dose Zepbound online, aim to address persistent supply issues and capture out-of-pocket demand.

Competitive pressures are rising globally. Novo Nordisk’s moves in India and the US, China’s approval of mazdutide, and over 30 obesity drugs in the Chinese pipeline all point to a crowded landscape. Lilly’s actions to protect its branded franchises—by limiting telehealth partnerships and excluding non-compliant firms—reflect the need to defend pricing and market share as the sector evolves.

Traders should monitor Q2 results, regulatory updates on obesity drugs, and pipeline news, particularly around orforglipron and gene-editing assets. LLY remains below consensus price targets, with multiple catalysts ahead and sector volatility likely as new entrants and pricing dynamics play out.