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Lancet Warns Trump-Era USAID Cuts Risk 14 Million Deaths by 2030

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Published Jul 4, 2025, 02:59 PM

Severe reductions to the U.S. Agency for International Development could trigger more than 14 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, including 4.5 million children younger than five, according to peer-reviewed modelling published in The Lancet. The study examined the effect of an 83% cut in USAID’s budget and the agency’s potential dismantling, measures implemented earlier this year by the Trump administration.

Analysing mortality trends in 133 low- and middle-income nations, researchers found that USAID-supported programmes prevented roughly 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021, notably curbing fatalities from HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Under current funding levels the authors forecast 1.8 million excess deaths in 2025 alone and warn the setback would rival a global pandemic in scale.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March that more than 80% of USAID’s roughly 6,000 projects had been cancelled and that the remainder would be folded into the State Department. USAID had overseen about US$35 billion in annual spending and supplied around 40% of worldwide humanitarian assistance. The Lancet team argues that restoring the agency’s financing would avert the projected toll and preserve two decades of global health gains.

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Our numbers of the week: 14m - The number of people that are likely to die by 2030 due to cuts in funding to the US Agency for International Development (USAid) after Donald Trump's return to office, a study published in the Lancet journal found. 23 - The number of seasons NBA