George Simion Leads Romanian Presidential Race with 40.5% Votes, Triggers Economic Turmoil as Leu Hits 5.1/Euro

George Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), has emerged as the frontrunner in Romania's presidential election after winning the first round with 40.5% of the vote. Simion, who supports Romania's NATO commitments but opposes further military aid to Ukraine, will face Nicuşor Dan, a pro-EU anti-corruption campaigner, in the runoff scheduled for May 18. Simion's victory has led to significant economic turbulence in Romania. The Romanian leu has fallen to a historic low of 5.1 against the euro, and the central bank has spent 2 billion euros in one day to stabilize the currency. This financial instability follows the resignation of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, triggered by the election results. The bond yield has risen to 8%, and the stock market has dropped by 3%, with the 2035 bond performing poorly. Simion's campaign has been marked by nationalist-populist rhetoric, echoing themes of disaffection with Brussels and opposition to supporting the Ukraine war. He has expressed alignment with the Trump administration and aims to emulate the political model of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. His victory has raised concerns about potential shifts in Romania's foreign policy, particularly regarding its support for Ukraine and its relationship with the EU and NATO. Simion won 60% of the Romanian diaspora vote and describes himself as an 'Euro-realist', advocating for a Europe of nations while emphasizing the rights of the Romanian minority in Ukraine. He supports a ceasefire solution to the conflict. Nicuşor Dan, who received just under 21% of the vote in the first round, has called for calm amid the financial market turmoil. He emphasizes Romania's competitive private economy and significant foreign reserves as reasons not to panic. Dan's campaign focuses on fighting corruption and represents a liberal rebuke of the political establishment.