The departure of Representative Mike Gallagher on 04/19 will narrow the Republican majority in the U.S. House to 217-213, leaving the GOP with a margin of just one vote before facing a potential tie, as Mike Johnson's margin for error will shrink. This slim majority means that with full attendance, the Republicans can only afford to lose one member on a vote, as a 215-215 tie would result in a bill's failure. This situation could slightly increase the odds of passing significant Biden administration bills, with estimates suggesting a 20% chance of success. Additionally, the House roster will further change once special elections are held, and Rep. Adam Schiff resigns to take a Senate seat, affecting the balance of power. The WI08 will remain vacant for the rest of the year after Gallagher's departure.
After Gallagher's departure next month, Republicans will control 217 House seats to the Democrats’ 213, allowing the GOP only a single defection from the party line on votes when all members are present. @anniekarni https://t.co/i5FCMyNdEq
Since WI08 will remain vacant for the rest of the year once Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) leaves on 04/19, House roster once special elections are held will be 220-214. Though Rep. Adam Schiff (D) will resign to immediately take CA Senate seat after winning Nov. 5 election.
When Gallagher leaves, the US House Majority will be 217 - 213 meaning with 3 defections Democrats can pass bills. (Remember they control the senate) I guess that means odds of big Biden bills increase a little. Lets say 20% ?? https://t.co/l4quSykhFi
So just doing some quick math: Once Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher are both gone, that will leave the Republicans with a 217 - 2013 majority. With full attendance, they will only be able to lose one member on a vote. (In a 215 - 215 tie, a bill will fail).
When Gallagher leaves the US House Majority will be 217 - 213 meaning that Republicans can only afford 1 defection if democrats vote together. I guess that means odds of big Biden bills increase a little. Lets say 20% ?? https://t.co/FyJcFd3M3q
HOUSE MATH ALERT: Mike Johnson's margin for error will shrink to *ONE* defection Once Gallagher leaves, it'll be 217 R to 213 D. If two Republicans join with Democrats, it would be a 215-215 tie—which is the same as a loss https://t.co/XxvDl9h9Kz