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Citi predicts a 20-25% increase in lithium prices over the next 2-3 months due to supply curtailment, physical rebalancing, and short covering. An unexpected shutdown at one of China's largest lithium mines has left the industry assessing whether this will end the prolonged price slump. The lithium sector is expected to enter an up-cycle as early as 2026, with the release of new capacity slowing due to project delays in China, according to Guotai Junan Securities. Meanwhile, a potential breakthrough in direct lithium extraction in the US could disrupt the current ecosystem dominated by China, Australia, and South America. Exxon is emerging as an interesting player in lithium extraction, and higher-grade, lower-cost mines are expected to see positive impacts in the coming weeks. Arkansas has become a hotbed of lithium mining.
