The National Hurricane Center on Thursday lifted the chance that a low-pressure area off the U.S. Southeast coast will develop into a tropical depression or weak storm to 60 %, up from 20 % earlier in the week. The disturbance is expected to consolidate along a stalled frontal boundary late this weekend and then drift northward toward the Carolinas.
Even if the system remains offshore, forecasters warned it could intensify rainfall, surf and rip-current hazards from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic during the busy Independence Day travel period. European ensemble guidance now puts the likelihood of at least depression-level formation at roughly 60–70 %, though wind shear may cap further strengthening.
A separate threat looms over the Northeast, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a severe-thunderstorm watch for Maine and New Hampshire until 6 p.m. Eastern and placed a broader swath of the region under a Level 2 “Slight” risk. Damaging wind gusts, one-inch hail and isolated flash flooding are possible as a cold front pushes through Thursday afternoon and evening.
The same front will usher in drier, more comfortable air for July 4, setting the stage for largely favorable fireworks conditions from Boston to Washington. Farther west, the National Weather Service expects heat-index values in the upper 90s across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with scattered storms continuing in parts of the Plains and Rockies.
Fire officials and physicians are urging caution with consumer fireworks during the holiday. Nearly 15,000 people were treated for fireworks-related injuries last year, including 11 fatalities, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reports, prompting reminders to observe local regulations, supervise children and keep water on hand.
Tropical Update | July 3, 2025
60% chance of development of a tropical cyclone (depression or storm) off the U.S. Southeast Coast.
The rest of the Atlantic tropics = dead due to intense/thick Saharan Dust plumes
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Maine and New Hampshire until 6 PM EDT. Hazards will include scattered damaging wind and large hail (some very large). More info:
A busy start to a stormy day in the Northeast!
A severe thunderstorm watch has already been issued for the entirety of Maine and New Hampshire.
Large hail and damaging gusts possible.
Latest Thursday 00z EURO ensembles. Showing likely flow if anything tries to spin up from area NHC is watching. Nothing solid to stress at. Eastern seaboard just keeping eyes open on any early week impacts.
A cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening bringing the threat of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across southern New England. The primary threats include areas of damaging wind and hail up to quarter size.
Clear skies on the 4th of July will make for great viewing of fireworks tomorrow evening! Much of the weekend will be sunny as well, before rain chances increase by the beginning of next week. Check your forecast for the holiday weekend at
