Lancet Warns Trump’s USAID Cuts May Cause 14 Million Deaths by 2030

Deep funding cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development and its potential dismantling could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, according to research published in The Lancet. The peer-reviewed study was released on 30 June as governments gathered in Seville for a United Nations conference on humanitarian aid.

Researchers modelled the impact of an 83 percent reduction in USAID programmes that Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in March under President Donald Trump. Using mortality and aid data from 133 low- and middle-income countries, they found that USAID support had prevented about 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021, including roughly 30 million children.

If the current cuts remain in place, the study projects 1.8 million excess deaths in 2025 alone and a cumulative total exceeding 14 million by the end of the decade. Roughly one-third of the toll—about 4.5 million—would be children under five, with rising fatalities anticipated from HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and other preventable diseases.

Washington had provided more than 40 percent of global humanitarian funding and disbursed US$61 billion in foreign assistance last year, about half of it through USAID. The authors warn that withdrawing that support risks reversing two decades of health gains and could trigger further cutbacks by other donors. They urge U.S. officials to restore financing, arguing that the agency’s budget accounts for just 0.3 percent of federal spending yet delivers “outsized” health benefits.