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Yu News
Top stories
Former S.F. Building Inspector Sentenced to Federal Prison for Taking $15,000 in Bribes
Authors
10
4 days
San Francisco
Economics
Crime
Prediction markets for Yu
Prediction markets for Yu
Will there be a Yu Gi Oh collaboration with Fortnite before the end of 2027?
Mar 18, 2:53 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
30.42%
chance
3
72
Option
Votes
YES
NO
230
114
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
84%
chance
424
3106389
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3273
887
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
Aug 29, 5:06 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
80.21%
chance
481
496588
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1126
1045
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?
Sep 13, 8:25 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
48.27%
chance
564
806492
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4133
2575
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
30.98%
chance
38
14288
Option
Votes
YES
NO
14526
7010
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
60%
chance
181
21792
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2412
1287
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
16.65%
chance
167
62246
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6748
3868
Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
May 8, 3:47 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
8
167
Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
May 8, 3:40 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
14
1012
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?
Jan 14, 3:49 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
1
20
🃏Which players will win the World Series of Poker Main event at least once before the end of 2040? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 30, 3:41 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
3
490
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Feb 4, 8:20 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
5
322
Articles
Latest stories
Former S.F. Building Inspector Sentenced to Federal Prison for Taking $15,000 in Bribes
Authors
10
4 days
San Francisco
Economics
Crime
Google's Liren Chen Charged With Murder of Wife Xuanyi Yu in Santa Clara
Authors
11
5 months
China
World
Culture
Former San Francisco Building Inspection Employees Cyril Yu and Rudy Pada Charged with Bribery
Authors
13
8 months
San Francisco
Politics
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