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Prediction markets for Will Friend

Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025?

Jan 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

15724322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1355

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.45%chance

11373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

978

Will destiny have a public falling out with anyone he considered a friend in 2024?

Feb 25, 11:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.04%chance

242296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

560

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

Jul 1, 11:35 AMJul 8, 8:59 PM

67.5%chance

16743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

694

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.2%chance

14191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

958

Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

Jun 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.2%chance

12702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1572

636

Will the real superconductor be the friends we made along the way? (check desc.)

Aug 6, 5:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27%chance

7315989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

625

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

71.1%chance

30991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1197

882

Will the Mar-a-Lago surveillance footage subpoenaed by the FBI show that Donald Trump took friends and guests into the locked room where the highly sensitive information was stored?

Aug 17, 7:04 AMDec 25, 4:59 AM

42.51%chance

393366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

939

813

How many friends will @RanaG make from attending LessOnline/SC/Manifest?

Jun 5, 9:57 PMJun 13, 6:59 AM

1916825

Will the Friend wearable AI device start shipping to consumers before the end of November?

May 15, 5:55 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

50.7%chance

873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Which member of our friend group will get married first?

Nov 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

194470

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Tennessee Secures Texas State Transfer QB TJ Finley; Western Kentucky Adds Will Friend as OC
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