Werner News

Who will be appointed to lead the EU AI Office?

Apr 4, 6:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4166

Who will be elected Oregon State Representative, 55th District?

Mar 19, 3:14 AMNov 6, 4:00 AM

261

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

May 18, 9:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.73%chance

4126

OptionVotes

YES

1122

891

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.39%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Will there be another high-profile self-immolation in the US within the next six months?

Apr 20, 5:53 AMOct 27, 6:59 AM

34.75%chance

513231

OptionVotes

YES

1384

693

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.49%chance

1600

OptionVotes

YES

1584

631

Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?

May 10, 11:13 PMJan 1, 11:55 PM

20.82%chance

295353

OptionVotes

YES

1028

694

Will the US recognize a Palestinian state before the election?

Feb 19, 1:44 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

7.32%chance

17711

OptionVotes

YES

1167

957

Will Curtis Yarvin publish a new book by the end of 2025?

Apr 17, 4:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.82%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

157

118

Will George P. Bush ever be president?

Feb 14, 10:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.35%chance

7225

OptionVotes

YES

395

127

Will Xabi Alonso ever manage Real Madrid?

Mar 20, 8:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.83%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

231

169

Will Lord Miles reach China from Afghanistan before September?

Apr 17, 2:07 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

58.62%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

140

103

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Werner News

Prediction markets for Werner

Prediction markets for Werner

Prediction markets for Werner

Who will be appointed to lead the EU AI Office?

Who will be elected Oregon State Representative, 55th District?

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will there be another high-profile self-immolation in the US within the next six months?

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?

Will the US recognize a Palestinian state before the election?

Will Curtis Yarvin publish a new book by the end of 2025?

Will George P. Bush ever be president?

Will Xabi Alonso ever manage Real Madrid?

Will Lord Miles reach China from Afghanistan before September?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Werner

Prediction markets for Werner

Prediction markets for Werner

Who will be appointed to lead the EU AI Office?

Who will be elected Oregon State Representative, 55th District?

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will there be another high-profile self-immolation in the US within the next six months?

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?