Wells News

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

73.42%chance

657420

OptionVotes

YES

1368

841

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Jan 2, 9:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

14338466

OptionVotes

YES

1928

988

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

52.49%chance

121115

OptionVotes

YES

1028

956

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.33%chance

29947

OptionVotes

YES

1134

664

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.43%chance

757989

OptionVotes

YES

1113

956

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.72%chance

23709

OptionVotes

YES

1179

913

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

13388

OptionVotes

YES

1049

968

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

24.5%chance

211113

OptionVotes

YES

1177

905

Sidney Powell pled guilty in the Georgia election subversion case. Will Giuliani flip and plead guilty as well?

Oct 19, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

291092

OptionVotes

YES

1195

920

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.07%chance

17212

OptionVotes

YES

1057

935

Will Biden be nominated, win reelection, serve out his whole term, and get his well deserved retirement?

Jul 1, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.88%chance

271743

OptionVotes

YES

1095

949

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Wells News

Prediction markets for Wells

Prediction markets for Wells

Prediction markets for Wells

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Sidney Powell pled guilty in the Georgia election subversion case. Will Giuliani flip and plead guilty as well?

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Will Biden be nominated, win reelection, serve out his whole term, and get his well deserved retirement?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Wells

Prediction markets for Wells

Prediction markets for Wells

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?