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Prediction markets for Wave

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53%chance

344625

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

878

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.06%chance

181026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

939

Will there be another controversy-causing wave of resignations at OpenAI in 2024?

May 23, 2:04 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

31.73%chance

231039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

682

[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 9:00 AM

29.47%chance

7810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

646

Did Wave's severance-related confidentiality agreements require signees to lie if asked about their existence?

Sep 14, 5:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.39%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

992

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before 2025?

Oct 16, 12:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.15%chance

11357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

948

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.36%chance

131441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

932

Will Google have two or more waves of layoffs in 2024?

Mar 23, 5:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.35%chance

19954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1588

787

Will Russia start another major wave of mobilization in 2024

Dec 17, 7:55 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

27.96%chance

616266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1643

484

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 20, 3:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will 1M context windows create a wave of security vulnerabilities affecting Internet usability in 2024?

Feb 22, 12:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.57%chance

231167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

905

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