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Prediction markets for Warne

Did federal agencies have advance warning of Jan 6 and fail to prevent it?

Jan 2, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

465

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

25.73%chance

593326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

1106

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.82%chance

191266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

854

The FDA will warn about overuse or misuse of semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus) before the end of 2024.

Oct 19, 12:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.41%chance

22932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

930

Will a state, province, or country issue a public health warning or laws about AI companions in 2024?

Dec 24, 5:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.39%chance

35958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

788

Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025

Jul 2, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.98%chance

20684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

903

Did the head of Egyptian intelligence warn Netanyahu about a "fierce" operation about to take place around Gaza?

Oct 9, 4:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

19.51%chance

364628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

632

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

10.72%chance

17329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

942

What is the reason for Vegapunk's warning; "The world as we know it...will sink into the sea!!"?

Apr 30, 11:42 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

7307

Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?

Feb 23, 11:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

24.59%chance

7188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

176

Will the West Coast of the island of Hawai'i experience "Coral Bleaching Warning Level 2" before 2025?

Aug 2, 6:27 PMJan 2, 9:59 AM

61.77%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

85

58

Will "What convincing warning shot could help preve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 7, 10:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.69%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

57

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