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Prediction markets for Vira

Will 2024 see a major, viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case, either in the US or globally?

Mar 15, 1:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.99%chance

10246446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

1202

Will another police killing in the United States go seriously viral before 2030?

Mar 26, 12:50 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.66%chance

33853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

855

By the end of 2024, a video completely generated by AI will be virally used as disinformation on Xitter

Feb 16, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.8%chance

17486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

991

Will something distinct to LK-99 achieve greater virality on Manifolds Markets before 2025?

Aug 11, 10:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.34%chance

411476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

952

Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?

May 13, 12:07 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

76.79%chance

321860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

977

From 2023-2027, will there be a computer viral infection infecting a higher % of computers than the worst of the 90s/00s

Mar 11, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

86

Will Richard Hanania make another viral post on X critiquing the age of consent?

Jan 29, 4:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.68%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

117

Will a viral vector (even an engineered one) integrate a part JoseLuisRiconome-DNA into some1 else's DNA by 2033?

Sep 15, 1:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030?

Apr 27, 6:39 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

72.69%chance

9362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

124

Will Viraj Chhajed (aka Viraj Cz) win emergent ventures (EV) by EOY 2026?

Jan 1, 4:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Is this "unspecified PasteBin" leak of Q* that went viral on Twitter real?

Mar 21, 3:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

152581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

921

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