Tur News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.64%chance

837526090

OptionVotes

YES

11105

8908

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Aug 28, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.36%chance

20254498

OptionVotes

YES

32280

21687

Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024?

Jun 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.68%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

10472

9549

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

807282949

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

5673

4770

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

53.36%chance

588061

OptionVotes

YES

975

958

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?

May 21, 6:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.62%chance

3119698

OptionVotes

YES

2519

397

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

4726320

OptionVotes

YES

1066

761

Turkey Tom (TomDark) stock permanent

Sep 13, 1:45 AMDec 31, 1:44 AM

79.32%chance

447324

OptionVotes

YES

1039

631

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

172181

OptionVotes

YES

985

448

Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%?

Jun 10, 4:00 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.96%chance

878526

OptionVotes

YES

1529

654

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

48.44%chance

6112321

OptionVotes

YES

1286

1037

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Tur News

Prediction markets for Tur

Prediction markets for Tur

Prediction markets for Tur

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Turkey Tom (TomDark) stock permanent

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%?

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Tur

Prediction markets for Tur

Prediction markets for Tur

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?