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Prediction markets for TOP
Prediction markets for TOP
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
Jun 15, 2:23 PM
Jul 31, 6:59 AM
69.83%
chance
391
168668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
73797
37003
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?
Aug 26, 1:33 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
158
58595
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
Jan 1, 7:36 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
102
27931
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
Feb 3, 2:59 PM
Dec 31, 10:00 AM
63.47%
chance
246
30273
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4514
4273
Will StrongMinds be a GWWC top charity in 2025?
Dec 23, 3:02 PM
Jan 1, 12:01 AM
13.33%
chance
68
21709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
15574
10409
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
May 11, 10:36 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.82%
chance
72
10440
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4090
2354
Will Hans Niemann be ranked in the top 25 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024?
Jan 18, 4:05 AM
Dec 31, 9:01 PM
41.37%
chance
27
4707
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3949
2615
Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? [Top 6 candidates, new market style]
Jul 1, 8:42 AM
Jul 19, 3:59 AM
1046
334542
How much volume will Polymarket have on its top 2024 US presidential election market?
Sep 11, 5:42 AM
Jan 16, 4:59 AM
11
57646
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?
Mar 5, 8:30 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 AM
18.28%
chance
85
5701
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2910
939
Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?
Dec 7, 11:40 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
19.13%
chance
32
3263
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2804
747
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be employed at one of the top AI labs in 2023 or 2024?
Feb 27, 12:43 PM
Jan 1, 6:29 AM
9.81%
chance
162
15090
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5482
1699
Articles
Latest stories
Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa Cancels SpaceX's dearMoon Lunar Tourism Mission Due to Development Delays and Uncertainty Over SpaceX Rocket Development
Authors
32
1 month
Tech
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