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Prediction markets for Three Kings

Will there be another major graveyard exhumation of a significant figure from the Three Kingdoms era in China by 2027?

Oct 5, 4:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

90

Tomb raider: three kingdoms created by 2035

Jan 22, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will GPT5 still be unable to distinguish history from fantasy in romance of three kingdoms

Apr 10, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.09%chance

16

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Tomb raider: three kingdoms created by 2030

Jan 23, 12:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

63

Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

5020474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

1023

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.61%chance

474639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

592

Will Ashiok, Wicked Manipulator's record be broken for most text on a recent Magic card before 2026?

Sep 30, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.96%chance

13322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

835

Will @ScottAlexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2026?

Apr 7, 11:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.99%chance

13427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

958

Is there something weird going on between Mira and firstuserhere?

Nov 4, 8:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20%chance

202441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

960

If I switch to using Supabase, will anything change and seriously break my script within the next three months?

Oct 4, 7:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.29%chance

12281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

998

Will a large scale, government-backed AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.87%chance

325198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

848

Will a very large-scale AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.85%chance

181337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

968

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Clark County and U.S. Districts Celebrate Día de Reyes, Three Kings Day
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6 months
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