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Prediction markets for Than Swe

Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?

Apr 9, 7:22 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16.59%chance

14400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

901

What's the next place I work for at least 6 months?

Nov 17, 9:20 PMNov 18, 7:59 AM

150

Which of these AI predictions will happen in 2024?

Apr 7, 11:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

401055

Will Manifold Markets be operating the sweepstakes model without legal intervention at EOY 2024?

Apr 22, 10:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.09%chance

10427949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1535

1041

Will Apple Vision Pro be available in Sweden before 2025?

Jun 13, 11:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.37%chance

477500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

1256

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.53%chance

642821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

1245

Will Sweden try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.61%chance

14813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

969

In 2028, will Israel's GDP per Capita be higher than Sweden's?

Jun 5, 11:02 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

32.77%chance

51430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will the artificial sweetener Cyclamate be legal in the USA by Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 6, 6:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.03%chance

1172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

967

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

47.07%chance

191416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

897

Will Tesla agree to union demands for mechanics in Sweden by the end of 2024?

Nov 22, 11:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.89%chance

161443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

695

Will the king of Sweden abdicate the throne?

Jan 2, 9:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.68%chance

27887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

975

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