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Quavo Hosts Gun Violence Summit with VP Kamala Harris in Atlanta on Takeoff's Birthday
Authors
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Prediction markets for Takeoff
Prediction markets for Takeoff
Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?
May 17, 5:25 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
35.6%
chance
34
3751
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1345
744
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Dec 23, 3:06 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.6%
chance
40
1892
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1058
810
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Dec 23, 3:14 PM
Dec 23, 9:26 PM
51.2%
chance
25
493
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1005
966
Will US or Canadian flights stop making me put away my laptop during takeoff and landing before 2030?
Dec 12, 11:15 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
18.39%
chance
13
281
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1169
939
Hard AGI takeoff will occur
Jan 29, 4:08 AM
Jan 1, 12:00 AM
18.99%
chance
3
95
Option
Votes
YES
NO
165
84
Will the Hermeus Quarterhorse Mk 1 test vehicle achieve remote takeoff and landing?
Mar 30, 10:52 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
AI takeoff will be slower than the midpoint of the “soft” versus “hard” AI takeoff debates as they were in 2021
Mar 24, 2:54 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
75.45%
chance
7
104
Option
Votes
NO
YES
244
127
Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years?
Apr 26, 5:56 PM
Apr 26, 11:59 PM
15.37%
chance
3
90
Option
Votes
YES
NO
200
74
Do you think there's going to be a hard takeoff?
Aug 14, 6:55 AM
Apr 7, 6:29 PM
69
0
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
198
80091
Next Moon Landing [Mega-Market] 🌚🚀🧑🚀🌝
Feb 26, 1:58 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20
1211
What world events will happen before Biden leaves office?
Jun 20, 9:49 AM
Jan 21, 7:59 AM
69
10005
Articles
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