Still News

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

60%chance

18121792

OptionVotes

YES

2412

1287

(5000M subsidy) Will I (porby) think "goal agnosticism" as a concept is still relevant/useful at the end of 2024?

Oct 9, 9:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.75%chance

8668

OptionVotes

YES

5813

4703

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in as president, will he still be president in 2030?

Dec 31, 1:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.6%chance

131406

OptionVotes

YES

971

953

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.32%chance

26360448

OptionVotes

YES

2550

1879

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

68.53%chance

12019038

OptionVotes

YES

1140

965

Will the price for ChatGPT Plus still be USD $20/month on Aug 12th 2024?

Aug 12, 1:41 PMAug 12, 10:59 PM

79.88%chance

1019152

OptionVotes

YES

4928

1182

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

Apr 28, 3:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13612857

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Jan 5, 9:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.14%chance

5415794

OptionVotes

YES

1956

1781

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Oct 23, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72%chance

18330996

OptionVotes

YES

1019

625

Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?

May 12, 4:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.33%chance

18411940

OptionVotes

YES

3256

702

What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

203898

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

49.99%chance

252231

OptionVotes

YES

1030

946

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Still News

Prediction markets for Still

Prediction markets for Still

Prediction markets for Still

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

(5000M subsidy) Will I (porby) think "goal agnosticism" as a concept is still relevant/useful at the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in as president, will he still be president in 2030?

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Will the price for ChatGPT Plus still be USD $20/month on Aug 12th 2024?

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?

What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Still

Prediction markets for Still

Prediction markets for Still

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

(5000M subsidy) Will I (porby) think "goal agnosticism" as a concept is still relevant/useful at the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in as president, will he still be president in 2030?

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Will the price for ChatGPT Plus still be USD $20/month on Aug 12th 2024?

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?