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Shorten News
Prediction markets for Shorten
Prediction markets for Shorten
Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?
Sep 6, 6:28 AM
Dec 14, 4:59 AM
22.29%
chance
11
214
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1114
947
Will the life shortening effects of the gears catch up to Luffy at the end of the series?
May 16, 4:46 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
70.21%
chance
2
55
Option
Votes
NO
YES
154
65
Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
Nov 23, 8:55 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
25.94%
chance
8
178
Option
Votes
YES
NO
262
153
New top level domain which shortens "x.com" before EOY 2029
Sep 25, 11:20 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
31.24%
chance
2
30
Option
Votes
YES
NO
120
70
Automatic shortening feature on YouTube before 2029
May 20, 10:43 PM
Jan 6, 7:59 AM
57.82%
chance
5
74
Option
Votes
NO
YES
148
114
Will US copyright terms be shortened by any amount before 2030?
Jan 31, 6:25 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
14.69%
chance
8
235
Option
Votes
YES
NO
303
148
Who will be the Prime Minister of Australia at some point in their life?
Mar 27, 3:52 PM
Sep 9, 2:29 PM
13
4474
Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labour Party?
Nov 3, 8:50 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
3
113
Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
Nov 1, 8:23 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
7
137
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
24.51%
chance
467
87952
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7155
5012
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
Dec 21, 5:45 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
60%
chance
107
8480
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1791
1750
Will Sepp Kuss win another Grand Tour in his career?
Sep 18, 1:23 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
30.47%
chance
15
546
Option
Votes
NO
YES
996
970
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