Sears News

Is OpenAI building a search engine?

May 23, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.59%chance

13139368

OptionVotes

YES

7688

3691

Conditional on Trump formally registering one for the 2024 election, his running mate will be

Oct 17, 8:05 AMNov 5, 4:59 PM

191009

Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2025

Nov 7, 1:21 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

3110

Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?

Nov 12, 5:22 AMNov 19, 7:59 AM

11722

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?

Mar 6, 8:47 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

6.69%chance

13221418

OptionVotes

YES

7386

637

Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?

Feb 15, 5:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.05%chance

196119347

OptionVotes

YES

1056

919

Will Google search default to a chatbot like interface by end of 2024?

Feb 6, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

11543044

OptionVotes

YES

8051

575

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.12%chance

433167

OptionVotes

YES

1390

1219

Will the first AI to get IMO gold tree-search the formal proof space?

Dec 11, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.45%chance

271300

OptionVotes

YES

1037

920

Will Amazon get this search right by the end of 2025?

Aug 14, 9:40 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

25.37%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

1044

974

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.81%chance

21497

OptionVotes

YES

1068

956

Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?

Sep 28, 3:29 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

55.2%chance

171103

OptionVotes

YES

1121

881

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Sears News

Prediction markets for Sears

Prediction markets for Sears

Prediction markets for Sears

Is OpenAI building a search engine?

Conditional on Trump formally registering one for the 2024 election, his running mate will be

Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2025

Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?

Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?

Will Google search default to a chatbot like interface by end of 2024?

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Will the first AI to get IMO gold tree-search the formal proof space?

Will Amazon get this search right by the end of 2025?

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?

Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Sears

Prediction markets for Sears

Prediction markets for Sears

Is OpenAI building a search engine?

Conditional on Trump formally registering one for the 2024 election, his running mate will be

Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2025

Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?

Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?

Will Google search default to a chatbot like interface by end of 2024?