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Prediction markets for Schem

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Dec 23, 12:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.2%chance

261887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

711

Ponzi-Scheme Stock

Aug 17, 11:09 PMAug 18, 3:59 AM

191631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Will OpenAI change their naming scheme (GPT-X) with the successor to GPT-4? (Ṁ200 subsidy!)

May 22, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.22%chance

375549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

817

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.71%chance

291000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

931

Manifold Market Ponzi Scheme Stock

Aug 13, 6:14 AMAug 14, 3:59 AM

131250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

915

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

261053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1535

912

Will Latvia end its Residence by Investment scheme (golden visa) by the end of 2024?

Jan 1, 8:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.32%chance

7239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

127

Will @d make his money back on The Great Pyramid of Mana: Manifold's BIGGEST Ponzi scheme?

Aug 17, 10:01 PMJun 17, 3:59 AM

9.33%chance

7218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

89

Will Germany introduce a deposit scheme for wine bottles?

Apr 2, 9:36 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

11%chance

8440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

391

111

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?

Mar 14, 11:03 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

25%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

123

Will sycophants be more common than both saints and schemers?

Sep 25, 6:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.66%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

73

Will I think that scheming benchmarks are more promising than game theory benchmarks (for defining trusted) in 1y?

Dec 13, 6:30 PMDec 14, 7:59 AM

54.16%chance

464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

88

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