Robins News

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.39%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.15%chance

302877

OptionVotes

YES

1049

960

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.57%chance

203843

OptionVotes

YES

1076

955

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

1022

851

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.88%chance

102943

OptionVotes

YES

2863

349

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

41.99%chance

13206

OptionVotes

YES

1019

981

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Mar 27, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.41%chance

141161

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.57%chance

53160

OptionVotes

YES

4119

243

Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2025?

Mar 30, 3:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.54%chance

161003

OptionVotes

YES

1448

903

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.45%chance

401392

OptionVotes

YES

1867

916

Robin Stock

May 2, 6:21 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

425614

OptionVotes

YES

1092

678

Will some1 generate a YouTube video of Robin Hanson riding a batmobile, laying an egg, and making Joker run away in 2024

Sep 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.92%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

250

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Robins News

Prediction markets for Robins

Prediction markets for Robins

Prediction markets for Robins

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2025?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Robin Stock

Will some1 generate a YouTube video of Robin Hanson riding a batmobile, laying an egg, and making Joker run away in 2024

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Robins

Prediction markets for Robins

Prediction markets for Robins

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?