Res News

Former Trump Exec Alleges Trump Made Offensive Holocaust Jokes to Jewish Employees
Authors
8
8 days
Culture

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Jul 1, 7:32 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

20.67%chance

322044

OptionVotes

YES

1029

964

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

23.32%chance

17728

OptionVotes

YES

995

926

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.89%chance

261537197

OptionVotes

YES

3039

1828

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?

Dec 26, 7:04 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

1.02%chance

450401329

OptionVotes

YES

412472

41528

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.6%chance

29683967

OptionVotes

YES

4281

3937

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29%chance

502368

OptionVotes

YES

1182

837

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.76%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

10048

9952

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.5%chance

289850796

OptionVotes

YES

8012

3478

Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups?

Jun 11, 11:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.43%chance

4921644

OptionVotes

YES

16651

7205

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.54%chance

4318883

OptionVotes

YES

1057

930

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Jan 2, 8:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.11%chance

101311

OptionVotes

YES

10339

9022

Latest stories

Former Trump Exec Alleges Trump Made Offensive Holocaust Jokes to Jewish Employees
Authors
8
8 days
Culture

Res News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Res

Prediction markets for Res

Prediction markets for Res

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Res

Prediction markets for Res

Prediction markets for Res

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?