Rather News

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Jan 2, 8:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.11%chance

101311

OptionVotes

YES

10339

9022

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.14%chance

10136671

OptionVotes

YES

2767

1283

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.95%chance

221351

OptionVotes

YES

1355

855

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

1877

1353

Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial?

Jul 1, 6:33 PMJul 9, 5:59 AM

29.54%chance

141026

OptionVotes

YES

1544

648

Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)

Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

78.01%chance

12221

OptionVotes

YES

1100

958

The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks

Oct 3, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.58%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

1178

928

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

1037

975

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

56.14%chance

965

OptionVotes

YES

182

160

Twitter "reverse following" view possible? To show you what your followers post, rather than what people you follow post

Mar 8, 8:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

41.21%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

191

169

Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!

May 22, 9:35 PMJul 7, 8:16 PM

13360885

Will there be a major AAA video game where NPCs speak with dynamically generated, rather than fixed dialogue, in 2024

Dec 25, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.37%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

199

120

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Rather News

Prediction markets for Rather

Prediction markets for Rather

Prediction markets for Rather

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial?

Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)

The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Twitter "reverse following" view possible? To show you what your followers post, rather than what people you follow post

Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!

Will there be a major AAA video game where NPCs speak with dynamically generated, rather than fixed dialogue, in 2024

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Rather

Prediction markets for Rather

Prediction markets for Rather

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial?

Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)

The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks