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Warriors Acquire Lindy Waters III in 2024 NBA Draft, Quinten Post Injured for Summer League
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5
6 days
NBA
NCAA
Sports

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Jun 20, 9:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239236

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

124930

OptionVotes

YES

5204

3441

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

Feb 18, 3:48 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

43.69%chance

143642

OptionVotes

YES

6390

2461

How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?

Jul 3, 8:18 PMJul 11, 6:59 AM

4414977

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.33%chance

9638551

OptionVotes

YES

3747

1509

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

9447154

OptionVotes

YES

1409

1310

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

1029332

OptionVotes

YES

1730

1390

Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024?

Jun 3, 3:45 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.56%chance

8723110

OptionVotes

YES

3728

1341

Who will post the most-liked tweet of 2024?

Nov 16, 8:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10210294

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?

Feb 16, 6:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.75%chance

1126836

OptionVotes

YES

1556

1062

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

Feb 15, 11:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.92%chance

135489

OptionVotes

YES

1168

922

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Nov 24, 6:50 PMJan 1, 8:42 AM

52.83%chance

14212

OptionVotes

YES

1027

971

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Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024?

Who will post the most-liked tweet of 2024?

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030