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Prediction markets for Polite

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.34%chance

1785988115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6345

4476

Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15222052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2289

1548

Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024?

Apr 20, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.75%chance

501819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

886

Which of the following political scenarios will be true in the following 2024 US Presidential elections?

Mar 6, 5:23 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

13829256

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.88%chance

692753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1766

959

Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?

Sep 7, 12:08 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

70.91%chance

362269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1197

886

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.57%chance

10513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

909

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.15%chance

30869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

990

Will a deepfake video cause a major political controversy involving a head of state by 2026?

Jan 23, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

623150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

610

Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents?

Dec 17, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.36%chance

453045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

861

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Mar 30, 2:17 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

50.45%chance

859955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

713

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.08%chance

16309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

975

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