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Prediction markets for Peoples
Prediction markets for Peoples
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Jan 13, 7:15 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
43.15%
chance
129
38324
Option
Votes
YES
NO
13328
9836
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?
Jul 20, 8:26 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
76%
chance
105
37902
Option
Votes
NO
YES
11105
2804
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Sep 2, 8:54 AM
Sep 9, 10:59 PM
31.64%
chance
51
7591
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1371
658
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PM
Feb 23, 4:59 AM
51.32%
chance
149
136503
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1862
1042
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
May 31, 4:36 AM
Jul 2, 5:59 AM
7
2537
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
Jun 2, 8:04 PM
Jul 2, 5:59 AM
11
2642
In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Jun 6, 8:26 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
21
5136
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
Jan 2, 9:03 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
15%
chance
143
38466
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1928
988
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Jan 8, 9:55 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
2.32%
chance
6
439
Option
Votes
YES
NO
549
103
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
May 27, 3:00 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
89.87%
chance
19
3235
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2251
742
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
49
8156
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Oct 17, 6:41 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
80.95%
chance
22
1351
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1355
855
Articles
Latest stories
Auburn Hires Charles Kelly as Co-Defensive Coordinator; Jarquez Hunter to Return for 2024 Season; LSU Adds Kevin Peoples as Assistant Coach on January 12, 2024
Authors
8
6 months
NCAA
Sports
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