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Prediction markets for Paras

¿De estas Cryptos de IA, cual prefieres para holdear?

Mar 17, 2:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

11

Who's buying ABC by 2024 year end?

Jul 17, 2:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

11481

Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?

Jun 4, 2:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.31%chance

10723297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

439

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Jun 22, 6:13 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

14.64%chance

9411607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4772

2550

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Mar 2, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10184

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.72%chance

251501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

831

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

8814106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

787

An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 4:43 PMDec 25, 8:00 AM

26.33%chance

674924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

1015

Paraplegic Does a Backflip by 2035

Mar 26, 6:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

22537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

961

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

464177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

804

Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?

Jun 22, 6:03 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

26.21%chance

14101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

942

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?

Jun 22, 6:05 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

26.69%chance

15195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

948

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