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Prediction markets for Pai

Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?

Jul 29, 2:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

17.91%chance

3198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

398

243

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

39.61%chance

563792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

908

Will a demon be summoned at ESPR or PAIR in 2024?

May 22, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.89%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.9%chance

17766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

951

Will I have paid at least 1000 USD to Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?

Feb 7, 5:52 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

31.03%chance

15602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

977

Will OpenAI offer a cheaper paid tier (<20$) or reduce the price of ChatGPT Plus by more than 5$ in 2024?

Jan 15, 4:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.19%chance

633930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

970

Will AI be able to correctly plot data in MS Paint before October 2024?

Sep 22, 7:34 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

24.84%chance

16601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

902

Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?

Nov 20, 4:11 PMDec 30, 3:00 PM

50.47%chance

13275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

945

Will AI be able to create art in a "human-like way" within Photoshop, GIMP, or Paint.NET by the end of 2024?

Sep 23, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

21.55%chance

11458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

968

Can plants feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21%chance

19787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

969

Will Emmett Shear be paid any money for their stint as OpenAI Ceo?

Nov 22, 6:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.19%chance

11312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

964

Can fungi feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 11:56 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

12898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

941

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Rajnish Kumar and TV Mohandas Pai to Exit Byju's Advisory Panel by June 30 Amid Crisis
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2 months
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