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Nick Bostrom News
Prediction markets for Nick Bostrom
Prediction markets for Nick Bostrom
Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Feb 4, 12:20 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
14.28%
chance
13
413
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1173
944
Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025?
Apr 4, 6:22 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
14%
chance
12
389
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1085
965
Will the Nick Bostrom email seem in hindsight to have caused more internal damage to EA than the FTX crisis?
Jan 14, 4:58 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
1.6%
chance
38
12977
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6236
703
Will Nick Bostrom found a new institute with a similar purpose to the Future of Humanity Institute, before 2025?
Apr 17, 10:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
81.5%
chance
9
434
Option
Votes
NO
YES
415
91
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 12, 11:59 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
4%
chance
27
1638
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1403
948
Will "mass surveillance" in the United States happen by 2035? (cf Nick Bostrom)
Mar 14, 8:20 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
39.66%
chance
5
71
Option
Votes
YES
NO
153
145
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
200
82090
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
280
345976
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
May 14, 2:57 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
49
1930
[Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election?
Jun 24, 7:15 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
6
96
Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?
Jan 3, 1:26 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
20
1250
Will a movie with more than 1M$ in revenue before 2025, mention the orthogonality thesis?
Aug 13, 10:02 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
27.71%
chance
77
6094
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1592
1383
Articles
Latest stories
Oxford University Shuts Down Future of Humanity Institute After 19 Years
Authors
21
3 months
Economics
Business
Philosopher Nick Bostrom's Simulation Hypothesis Sparks Debate on Existence of Simulation and Physical Anomalies
Authors
6
7 months
AI
Tech
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