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Neel Nanda News
Prediction markets for Neel Nanda
Prediction markets for Neel Nanda
WhiteBox Research will solve at least four of Neel Nanda's Concrete Open Problems by the end of September 2024.
Jun 20, 12:04 PM
Sep 30, 3:59 PM
53.47%
chance
3
117
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1072
933
Will Neel Nanda's or Lee Sharkey's SERI MATS streams (Summer 2023) produce a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication?
Jul 23, 9:01 PM
Dec 31, 11:30 AM
31.03%
chance
18
1500
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1069
902
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Sep 18, 7:15 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
35.78%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
115
70
Will Neel Nanda receive a Turing Prize by EOY 2050?
Nov 7, 8:46 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
15.3%
chance
4
270
Option
Votes
YES
NO
184
79
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Oct 24, 11:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
19
2210
WhiteBox Research will get at least one fellow accepted into a ≥0.5 FTE AI safety research fellowship by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:06 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
52.5%
chance
1
53
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1051
951
WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:08 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
78.52%
chance
3
989
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1912
523
By 2025, percent of 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability solved?
Jul 20, 11:55 PM
Jan 1, 5:42 AM
30.45%
chance
7
153
Option
Votes
YES
NO
240
185
In 2025, category distribution for solved problems from the 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability?
Jul 21, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 5:32 PM
6
296
Articles
Latest stories
New Mechanistic Interpretability Libraries Prisma and Pyvene Released for Multimodal Models and Neural Interventions with Collaboration from Tyrell Turing and Neel Nanda
Authors
5
4 months
AI
Tech
Actress Selma Archerd, Known for 'Die Hard' and 'Melrose Place', Dies at 98; Comedian Neel Nanda, 'Jimmy Kimmel Live' and Comedy Central, Dies at 32, Tributes Pour In
Authors
6
6 months
Culture
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